13 June 2009

Israel's BIG Win

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is "re-elected"

I wrote about this three days ago and said that due to Israels continued "war games" towards Iran that the country would close ranks and re-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Israel must be overjoyed today, their man was re-elected, now they have a "whipping boy"

Still, here is what we can expect to see now. I believe Iran will still change. Far too many moderates and young people turned out to ignore. Iran's a funny place, even though the Establishment "helped" Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a win. They will still recognise the groundswell. This is why they turned off SMS texting and shut down access to certain websites the day before the election.

What we can expect to see is change in Iran, even under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Clerics are intelligent, some are quite progressive as well, whilst others are not.

So, even though the course and the message may change, the delivery will still be from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and he has "baggage" that Israel will capitalise on. Whereas a Mousavi win they'd have had nothing but speculation and false accusations.

This will make things a bit harder for Obama as Israel will use all of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad former statements and actions as a reason to impose more sanctions and possibly attack them.

It's not the biggest hurdle Obama will face, but we must watch this closely as the Israelis are crafty.